Remote sensing environmental change in southern African savannahs : a case study of Namibia

Savannah biomes cover a fifth of Earth’s surface, harbour many of the world’s most iconic species and most of its livestock and rangeland, while sustaining the livelihoods of an important proportion of its human population. They provide essential ecosystem services and functions, ranging from forest, grazing and water resources, to global climate regulation and carbon sequestration. However, savannahs are highly sensitive to human activities and climate change. Across sub-Saharan Africa, climatic shifts, destructive wars and increasing anthropogenic disturbances in the form of agricultural intensification and urbanization, have resulted in widespread land degradation and loss of ecosystem services. Yet, these threatened ecosystems are some of the least studied or protected, and hence should be given high conservation priority. Importantly, the scale of land degradation has not been fully explored, thereby comprising an important knowledge gap in our understanding of ecosystem services and processes, and effectively impeding conservation and management of these biodiversity hotspots. The primary drivers of land degradation include deforestation, triggered by the increasing need for urban and arable land, and concurrently, shrub encroachment, a process in which the herbaceous layer, a defining characteristic of savannahs, is replaced with hardy shrubs. These processes have significant repercussions on ecosystem service provision, both locally and globally, although the extents, drivers and impacts of either remain poorly quantified and understood. Additionally, regional aridification anticipated under climate change, will lead to important shifts in vegetation composition, amplified warming and reduced carbon sequestration. Together with a growing human population, these processes are expected to compound the risk of land degradation, thus further impacting key ecosystem services. Namibia is undergoing significant environmental and socio-economic changes. The most pervasive change processes affecting its savannahs are deforestation, degradation and shrub encroachment. Yet, the extent and drivers of such change processes are not comprehensively quantified, nor are the implications for rural livelihoods, sustainable land management, the carbon cycle, climate and conservation fully explored. This is partly due to the complexities of mapping vegetation changes with satellite data in savannahs. They are naturally spatially and temporally variable owing to erratic rainfall, divergent plant functional type phenologies and extensive anthropogenic impacts such as fire and grazing. Accordingly, this thesis aims to (i) quantify distinct vegetation change processes across Namibia, and (ii) develop methodologies to overcome limitations inherent in savannah mapping. Multi-sensor satellite data spanning a range of spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions are integrated with field datasets to achieve these aims, which are addressed in four journal articles. Chapters 1 and 2 are introductory. Chapter 3 exploits the Landsat archive to track changes in land cover classes over five decades throughout the Namibian Kalahari woodlands. The approach addresses issues implicit in change detection of savannahs by capturing the distinct phenological phases of woody vegetation and integrating multi-sensor, multi-source data. Vegetation extent was found to have decreased due to urbanization and small-scale arable farming. An assessment of the limitations leads to Chapter 4, which elaborates on the previous chapter by quantifying aboveground biomass changes associated with deforestation and shrub encroachment. The approach centres on fusing multiple satellite datasets, each acting as a proxy for distinct vegetation properties, with calibration/validation data consisting of concurrent field and LiDAR measurements. Biomass losses predominate, demonstrating the contribution of land management to ecosystem carbon changes. To identify whether biomass is declining across the country, Chapter 5 focuses on regional, moderate spatial resolution time-series analyses. Phenological metrics extracted from MODIS data are used to model observed fractional woody vegetation cover, a proxy for biomass. Trends in modelled fractional woody cover are then evaluated in relation to the predominant land-uses and precipitation. Negative trends slightly outweighed positive trends, with decreases arising largely in protected, urban and communal areas. Since precipitation is a fundamental control on vegetation, Chapter 6 investigates its relation to NDVI, by assessing to what extent observed trends in vegetation cover are driven by rainfall. NDVI is modelled as a function of precipitation, with residuals assumed to describe the fraction of NDVI not explained by rainfall. Mean annual rainfall and rainfall amplitude show a positive trend, although extensive “greening” is unrelated to rainfall. NDVI amplitude, used as a proxy for vegetation density, indicates a widespread shift to a denser condition. In Chapter 7, trend analysis is applied to a Landsat time-series to overcome spatial and temporal limitations characteristic of the previous approaches. Results, together with those of the previous chapters, are synthesized and a synopsis of the main findings is presented. Vegetation loss is predominantly caused by demand for urban and arable land. Greening trends are attributed to shrub encroachment and to a lesser extent conservation laws, agroforestry and rangeland management, with precipitation presenting little influence. Despite prevalent greening, degradation processes associated with shrub encroachment, including soil erosion, are likely to be widespread. Deforestation occurs locally while shrub encroachment occurs regionally. This thesis successfully integrates multi-source data to map, measure and monitor distinct change processes across scales

Estimating aboveground woody biomass change in Kalahari woodland: combining field, radar, and optical data sets

Maps that accurately quantify aboveground vegetation biomass (AGB) are essential for ecosystem monitoring and conservation. Throughout Namibia, four vegetation change processes are widespread, namely, deforestation, woodland degradation, the encroachment of the herbaceous and grassy layers by woody strata (woody thickening), and woodland regrowth. All of these vegetation change processes affect a range of key ecosystem services, yet their spatial and temporal dynamics and contributions to AGB change remain poorly understood. This study quantifies AGB associated with the different vegetation change processes over an 8-year period, for a region of Kalahari woodland savannah in northern Namibia. Using data from 101 forest inventory plots collected during two field campaigns (2014–2015), we model AGB as a function of the Advanced Land Observing Satellite Phased Array L-band synthetic aperture radar (PALSAR and PALSAR-2) and dry season Landsat vegetation index composites, for two periods (2007 and 2015). Differences in AGB between 2007 and 2015 were assessed and validated using independent data, and changes in AGB for the main vegetation processes are quantified for the whole study area (75,501 km2). We find that woodland degradation and woody thickening contributed a change in AGB of −14.3 and 2.5 Tg over 14% and 3.5% of the study area, respectively. Deforestation and regrowth contributed a smaller portion of AGB change, i.e. −1.9 and 0.2 Tg over 1.3% and 0.2% of the study area, respectively

Archetypes of remnant West African forest patches, their main characteristics and geographical distribution

Remnant West African forest patches provide crucial ecosystem functions and services while contributing to sustaining the livelihoods of vast numbers of people. The vast majority lie outside of protected areas, although relatively few are managed as sacred forests, which limits their access and use. This lack of protection, together with a growing demand for arable land and forest resources, have accentuated their fragmentation, degradation, and deforestation. There is therefore an urgent need to generate knowledge on their social-ecological characteristics and change pressures to support their conservation. This study investigates what are i) the main biophysical and social-ecological characteristics of remnant forest patches, and ii) the potential change pressures and drivers. Within this scope, we apply archetype analysis to discern processes affecting remnant forest patches. Biophysical and socio-ecological indicators were selected from a published dataset via expert consultation, and nine archetypes were developed by applying a cluster analysis. Evaluating the results in relation to ecoregions and landscape features using high resolution imagery, we identify common underlying social-ecological change pressures and characteristics. The most common archetype (2) is characterized by being close to protected areas and having a low average annual precipitation and cluster along the northern fringe of the study area. The second most common archetype (5) is characterized by lying in highly disturbed landscapes, having undergone biomass losses, and widely distributed throughout central and western Nigeria. Patches of archetype 8 found predominantly in mangrove and swamp forests, exhibit positive above-ground biomass changes and greening trends; we propose that these vegetation changes could benefit conservation measures and carbon sequestration programs. In contrast, archetype 10 patches show both forest and biomass losses and gains and are often encompass fragmented forests in urban/arable landscapes. Identifying such common patterns of anthropogenic and ecological change provides a means of prioritizing regionalized strategies for their conservation and sustainable use

Mapping decadal land cover changes in the woodlands of north eastern Namibia from 1975 to 2014 using the Landsat satellite archived data

Woodlands and savannahs provide essential ecosystem functions and services to communities. On the African continent, they are widely utilized and converted to subsistence and intensive agriculture or urbanized. This study investigates changes in land cover over four administrative regions of North Eastern Namibia within the Kalahari woodland savannah biome, covering a total of 107,994 km2. Land cover is mapped using multi-sensor Landsat imagery at decadal intervals from 1975 to 2014, with a post-classification change detection method. The dominant change observed was a reduction in the area of woodland savannah due to the expansion of agriculture, primarily in the form of small-scale cereal and pastoral production. More specifically, woodland savannah area decreased from 90% of the study area in 1975 to 83% in 2004, and then increased to 86% in 2014, while agricultural land increased from 6% to 12% between 1975 and 2014. We assess land cover changes in relation to towns, villages, rivers and roads and find most changes occurred in proximity to these. In addition, we find that most land cover changes occur within land designated as communally held, followed by state protected land. With widespread changes occurring across the African continent, this study provides important data for understanding drivers of change in the region and their impacts on the distribution of woodland savannahs

A Remote Sensing-Based Inventory of West Africa Tropical Forest Patches: A Basis for Enhancing Their Conservation and Sustainable Use

The rate of tropical deforestation is increasing globally, and the fragmentation of remaining forests is particularly high in arable landscapes of West Africa. As such, there is an urgent need to map and monitor these remnant forest patches/fragments and so identify their multiple benefits and values. Indeed, recognizing their existence will help ensure their continued provision of ecosystem services while facilitating their conservation and sustainable use. The aim of this study is therefore to inventory and characterise the current extent and change of remnant forest patches of West Africa, using multi-source remote sensing products, time-series analyses, and ancillary datasets. Specifically, we collate and analyse descriptive and change metrics to provide estimates of fragment size, age, biophysical conditions, and relation to social-ecological change drivers, which together provide novel insights into forest fragment change dynamics for over four decades. We map forests patches outside protected areas with a tree cover ≥30%, a tree height of ≥5 m, an area ≥1 km2 and ≤10 km2. Appended to each patch are descriptive and change dynamics attributes. We find that most fragments are small, secondary forest patches and these cumulatively underwent the most forest loss. However, on average, larger patches experience more loss than smaller ones, suggesting that small patches persist in the landscape. Primary forest patches are scarce and underwent fewer losses, as they may be less accessible. In 1975 most patches were mapped as secondary, degraded forests, savanna, woodland, and mangrove, and relatively few comprised cropland, settlements, and agriculture, suggesting that new forest patches rarely emerged from arable land over the past 45 years (1975–2020), but rather are remnants of previously forested landscapes. Greening is widespread in larger secondary fragments possibly due to regrowth from land abandonment and migration to urban areas. Forest loss and gain are greater across fragments lying in more modified landscapes of secondary forests, while forest loss increases with distance to roads. Finally, larger forest patches harbour a denser tree cover and higher trees as they may be less impacted by human pressures. The number and extent of West African forest patches are expected to further decline, with a concurrent heightening of forest fragmentation and accompanying edge effects. Lacking any conservation status, and subject to increasing extractive demands, their protection and sustainable use is imperative

Mapping precipitation-corrected NDVI trends across Namibia

Savannas comprise a major component of the Earth system and contribute ecosystem services and functions essential to human livelihoods. Monitoring spatial and temporal trends in savanna vegetation and understanding change drivers is therefore crucial. Widespread greening has been identified across southern Africa; yet its drivers and manifestations on the ground remain ambiguous. This study removes the effects of precipitation on an NDVI time-series, thereby identifying trends not driven by rainfall. It utilizes the significant correlation between vegetation and precipitation as captured using MODIS and rainfall estimates. A linear regression between variables was used to derive its residual (corrected) time-series, and the rate and spatial extent of trends were evaluated in relation to biomes. A random sample-based qualitative interpretation of high spatial resolution imagery was then used to evaluate the nature of the trend on the ground. 23.25% of the country, including all biomes exhibited positive trends. We propose that greening may be related to a reduction in woody species richness, loss of the large trees and a shift towards drought tolerant shrub species, as has been shown in other sub-Saharan environments. 3.23% of the country exhibited negative trends, which were mostly associated with more humid (forested) regions pointing to deforestation as a cause; these manifested as vegetation clearing, identifiable using high resolution multi-temporal imagery. Greening trends could not be identified using this approach; instead, they point to the occurrence of gradual vegetation change caused by indirect drivers

Mapping decadal land cover changes in the woodlands of north eastern Namibia using the Landsat satellite archive (1975-2014)

Woodland savannahs provide essential ecosystem functions and services to communities. On the African continent, they are widely utilized and converted to intensive land uses. This study investigates the land cover changes of 108,038 km**2 in NE Namibia using multi-temporal, multi-sensor Landsat imagery, at decadal intervals from 1975 to 2014, with a post-classification change detection method and supervised Regression Tree classifiers. We discuss likely impacts of land tenure and reforms over the past four decades on changes in land use and land cover. These changes included losses, gains and exchanges between predominant land cover classes. Exchanges comprised logical conversions between woodland and agricultural classes, implying woodland clearing for arable farming, cropland abandonment and vegetation succession. The most dominant change was a reduction in the area of the woodland class due to the expansion of the agricultural class, specifically, small-scale cereal and pastoral production. Woodland area decreased from 90% of the study area in 1975 to 83% in 2014, while cleared land increased from 9% to 14%. We found that the main land cover changes are conversion from woodland to agricultural and urban land uses, driven by urban expansion and woodland clearing for subsistence-based agriculture and pastoralism

Mapped distribution of tidal flats across China, Manchuria and Korea (1952-1964)

A map of the tidal flats of China, Manchuria and Korea depicted in US Army Map Service Series L500, L542 and L552 topographic maps (compiled between 1950 and 1964). The topographic maps were georeferenced against prominent topographical features in L1T processed Landsat imagery and the foreshore flat class was manually delineated. For further information refer to Murray et. al. (2014)

RS-enabled EBV Road Map

The ESA funded GlobDiversity project was the first large-scale project explicitly designed to develop and engineer Remote Sensing enabled Essential Biodiversity Variables (RS-enabled EBVs) and ended in June 2020. The project also aimed to contribute with the documents and procedures generated to the development of a workflow starting from user requirements to final products that can be used for policy relevant global biodiversity monitoring and assessments. As a final step, the project developed a road map discussing the project’s outputs, e.g., strategic documents, processing chain and data products derived when focusing on particular RS-enabled EBVs, in the context of the overall EBV framework with and in context of relevant players such as the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), CBD, IPBES, CEOS, the EBV user community and decision makers, Copernicus Services and the space agencies. We will thus present this RS-enabled EBV road map strategic document with the aim to put in place the project’s output into the EBV frame work. The proposed workflow includes discussions about the involvement of different users from the very beginning, to the development of any EBV data set, as well as to the implementation and use in the framework of the indictors. In addition, we will discuss the project’s experiences gained while developing biodiversity products based on remote sensing. In particular, we will present knowledge gaps and recommendations when evaluating the proposed road map. Thus, we will present this strategic document, so that the biodiversity community can most benefit from GlobDiversity’s outcome

Distribution, extent and protection of intertidal habitats in Australia

Shorebirds have declined severely across the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Many species rely on intertidal habitats for foraging, yet the distribution and conservation status of these habitats across Australia remain poorly understood. Here, we utilised freely available satellite imagery to produce the first map of intertidal habitats across Australia. We estimated a minimum intertidal area of 9856km2, with Queensland and Western Australia supporting the largest areas. Thirty-nine percent of intertidal habitats were protected in Australia, with some primarily within marine protected areas (e.g. Queensland) and others within terrestrial protected areas (e.g. Victoria). Three percent of all intertidal habitats were protected by both marine and terrestrial protected areas. To achieve conservation targets, protected area boundaries must align more accurately with intertidal habitats. Shorebirds use intertidal areas to forage and supratidal areas to roost, so a coordinated management approach is required to account for movement of birds between terrestrial and marine habitats. Ultimately, shorebird declines are occurring despite high levels of habitat protection in Australia. There is a need for a concerted effort both nationally and internationally to map and understand how intertidal habitats are changing, and how habitat conservation can be implemented more effectively